Sox in Trouble

Now I'm not trying to gloat here (don't worry I am still taking pleasure in the anxiety of Sox fans) but the Red Sox look like they are in a world of trouble. Don't get me wrong, they can definitely still dig themselves out of this hole and make a run at the Rays - we've seen it happen before.

This time though, things are different. This is a Red Sox team that is hurting. Papi has only one wrist, Beckett has no velocity, Drew's back is as stiff as a board, Mike Lowell has no hip and even the always reliable Jon Lester has began to show signs that he is human after jumping from 183 total innings last year to 230 this year.

The other big thing you've probably already heard is that this team has no Manny Ramirez and people are right to point it out. This lineup is not nearly as intimidating without Manny. Even Papi is feeling it. Sure he is hurt, but pitchers don't have to fear pitching around him as much. Kevin Youkilis has been great as his protector since Manny left, but he just can't get out of Manny's shadow. If you think I'm being hard on Youk look at his line this series: .429/.429/.786. Those are very good numbers, especially considering how well the Rays staff has pitched this series (with the glaring exception of Scott Kazmir). Now you may not have seen what Manny has done to Philly this series since you're trying to forget Manny like an ex-girlfriend, but here is his line: .500/.667/.917.

Those numbers are simply inhuman. The most telling stat Manny has is six walks to zero for Youk. Six walks in four games means you're pretty damn intimidating. 

Aside from Manny being on the other side of the continent, the Sox are also looking at two big reasons that they should be worried. The first is that unlike last year against Cleveland, they don't have home field advantage. Games six and seven will be played to the irritating din of cowbells in the Trop. Florida hasn't been kind to the Nation this year and things could get ugly down there.

Second is Josh Beckett. He is simply not the same pitcher as last year and it looks very unlikely that he will be anytime soon. Without him Boston needs to consider the idea of moving Jon Lester up one start to game six to either save them for a game seven or to polish off the Rays.

Tonight will give us a better idea of how in trouble the Red Sox are. Wakefield has been great against the Rays during his long career but he hasn't been able to handle them this year. His record against the 2008 Rays is 0-2 with a ERA sitting at a rather bloated 5.87. 

This could get messy pretty fast.