Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Bay vs. Ramirez

Let's get one thing straight right now.  Manny Ramirez is an almost certain Hall of Famer, and Jason Bay is a very good player entering his prime.  There's a big difference.  But now that we've had a chance to let the trade sink in let's compare the two players' production this year, shall we.

Jason Bay has scored 109 runs this season.  That's 7th in all of baseball.  Manny has scored 99.  Manny leads in home runs 36 to 31. No big difference there.  He also has a slight edge in RBI, 117 to 100.  Manny is significantly better than Jason in average and OBP.  His 0.331 average would lead the American League.  So what is my point?

My point is that you could pencil in Jason Bay for 30 HR, 100 runs, and 100 RBI every season, even when he was on the crummy Pirates.  Now that he has familiarized himself with AL pitching and is hitting in the middle of a stacked line up, he has the opportunity for a huge year in 2009.  Oh yeah, and he can also actually play the outfield instead of being a glorified spectator.  Manny can compile his numbers all he wants.  Jason will do the things that are not in the box score plus his production is the kind that you will take on your team anytime.

The tear Manny has been on in LA is similar to the good behavior one gets out of a delinquent kid who has just transferred schools.  After about a month all of the old habits start to resurface.  I will be interested to see how much LA likes him by this time next year.  Jason Bay is happy to be in Boston and grateful for an opportunity to win.  It's clear now that he fits in and is capable of handling the pressure.  The fans have also embraced him as soon as they threw out their Manny dreadlock wigs. 


Rob Abruzzese said...

Say what you will, as a Yankee fan I couldn't be happier that Manny is out of Boston. Justify it anyway you want he's better than Bay. With Manny out the Sox are worse.

Maybe next year they can trade Ortiz. I'm sure there is some 28 year old that is half way decent that Red Sox fans can justify as an upgrade.

Dennis said...

Now hold on a moment my friend. Certainly a 28 year old Ramirez is a lot better than a 28 year old Bay, and a 34 year old Ramirez is better than a 28 year old Bay, but a 37 year old Ramirez with a guaranteed $20 million a year into his 40's is not demonstrably better than Bay, and given his defense, is probably a little worse. I don't know if the Red Sox will win the title, but this trade does remind of the Garciaparra-Cabrera trade in 2004, which many thought was a downgrade as well.